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Brexit: a Trillion pounds and counting…

Brexit isn’t a one-off bill. It’s a persistent drag: the economy is smaller than the no‑Brexit baseline, every year, and the gap compounds.

This isn’t money we might lose. This is money we already lost - and we’re not even trying to scrape it back.

Illustrative Brexit cost paths

Different channels that leave the UK economy smaller than a no‑Brexit baseline — and how the gap builds up over time.

Here’s what we could have won

Take the Treasury shortfall, and translate it into estimated budgets through likely tax receipts.

Usable tax cash (total since 2016)

£77.5Bn

Average per week (since 2016)

£1.49Bn

Per household (avg weekly)

£0

So what number goes on the bus now?

The big important Brexit number was never what “we pay the EU”, it's what that growth did for us. Using a Treasury receipts shortfall of ~£75Bn/yr (±£12.5Bn; sensible range: £65–£90Bn), here’s what that looks like per week - and what share that implies for the NHS if spending stayed roughly proportional.

Treasury shortfall (weekly)

£0

“Bus weeks” (× £350m)

0.0×

NHS share implied (weekly)

£0

Other big yearly lines (for scale)

Paying interest on national debt

~£106Bn/yr

Money spent each year just to service existing government debt.

Tax relief on private pensions

~£60Bn/yr

A tax subsidy for pension saving (largest gains skew to higher earners).

Tax owed but not collected (“tax gap”)

~£45Bn/yr

The difference between what should be paid in tax and what actually arrives.

Housing support that ends up with landlords

~£12Bn/yr

Public money routed into private rents via housing support.

Upper-bound “immigration cost” framing

Under ~£10Bn/yr

A generous cap used by hardliners — still single‑digit billions vs Brexit’s tens of billions.

Advanced assumptions

Tax-to-GDP ratio

Used to turn Treasury receipts shortfall into an implied GDP shortfall series for the chart and the total counter.

35%

Assumption: 35%.

NHS share of spending

Default is 19%, the share of total spending that goes to the NHS.

19%

Assumption: 19%.

“Money cycles” factor

Optional storytelling knob for the prize board (1.00 = direct receipts only).

1.40×

Assumption: 1.40×.

Where the cost shows up

The “tab” isn’t a pile of banknotes in Brussels. It shows up as deadweight loss, lower investment, and friction that turns normal economic activity into overhead. Some of the leak is obvious; some of it is political opportunity.

Real-income hit: sterling drop → higher import prices → squeezed living standards.
Investment hole: less kit, less productivity, weaker future wages.
Trade/admin friction: paperwork and border processes as a permanent tax on SMEs and exporters.
Leakage: procurement/contracting and “intermediaries” ecosystems that grow around new friction.

Key sources

UK in a Changing Europe - Brexit’s impact on the UK economy (6–8% GDP per capita shortfall estimate by 2025)
ONS - annual nominal GDP series (baseline GDP path)
House of Commons Library - GDP figures (context for “£bn/year” scale)
OBR - Brexit trade assumption performance (trade volumes + productivity drag framing)
IFS - sterling fall and inflation + CEPR/VoxEU - Brexit depreciation & prices (import-price pass-through)
GOV.UK - customs administrative burden (friction and compliance costs)
Public Accounts Committee - PPE procurement + NAO - PPE contracts (procurement risk + waste dynamics)

Thanks for reading

Britain’s skint - and Brexit is a big chunk of why.

It’s easy to feel like it’s too late, or that the argument is stuck forever. It doesn’t have to be.

Almost nobody in politics is shouting “rejoin” (except Steve), but we can still have a serious, practical conversation about healing those economic links, rebuilding trust, and moving toward closer ways of working that other EU‑friendly countries already use.

Better Britain Bureau

Bus image: Brexit costs the NHS £300 million every week